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Fertility Decline Across Regions and Socioeconomic Groups in India: Analysis of Period and Cohort Fertility Trends Through Age-Period-Cohort (APC) Models
Authors: Uttamacharya, and Perianayagam Arokiasamy
Source: Demography India, 47(1): 97-112
Topic(s): Fertility
Country: Asia
  India
Published: JAN 2017
Abstract: This paper first investigates the trends in the period and cohort total fertility rates across regions and socioeconomic groups in India. Next, the age-period-cohort models are applied to assess the relative importance of period and cohort factors in fertility decline in India across regions and socioeconomic groups in India. The birth history data from the three rounds of National Family survey (NFHS 1, 2 & 3) is used to estimate the period and cohort total fertility rates. The period fertility rates are estimated for the period 1981-2006 and cohort fertility rates are estimated for women born between 1945 and 1965. Bayesian APC models are used to analyze the significance of period and cohort factors. Results show that both period and cohort fertility declined across all the subpopulations; however, there were remarkable differentials in pace and magnitude. The result from the APC models showed that fertility decline in India is primarily determined by the period factors; however, for north-east region of India, cohort factors were significant in determining the fertility trends.
Web: http://demographyindia.in/article_document/32/941348.pdf