| An investigation of Jordan’s fertility stall and resumed decline: The role of proximate determinants |
| Authors: |
Caroline Krafft, Elizabeth Kula, and Maia Sieverding |
| Source: |
Demographic Research, Volume 45, Article 19; DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2021.45.19 |
| Topic(s): |
Contraception
Fertility
Marriage
|
| Country: |
Asia
Jordan
|
| Published: |
AUG 2021 |
| Abstract: |
BACKGROUND
Fertility stalls have been observed in numerous African and Middle Eastern countries.
From the late 1990s until 2011 the fertility transition in Jordan was stalled, with the total fertility rate (TFR) well above replacement level.
OBJECTIVE
This paper demonstrates a resumption of fertility decline in Jordan since 2012 and investigates the background and proximate determinants behind the decline.
METHODS
Fertility trends among Jordanians are analyzed using the Jordan Labor Market Panel
Survey (JLMPS) 2010 and 2016 waves and the Jordan Population and Family Health
Survey (JPFHS) 2002 to 2017/2018 rounds. We estimate age-specific and total fertility
rates over time and conduct a proximate-determinants decomposition. We also examine
the evolution of fertility by age, education, and parity, testing for meaningful changes
over time in a multivariate framework.
RESULTS
Fertility among Jordanians declined from a TFR of 3.8 in 2009/2010 to 3.3 in JLMPS
2016 and 2.6 in JPFHS 2017/2018. Vital statistics data are more consistent with the
JLMPS estimate. Declines in fertility occurred across age groups and education levels
and have parity-specific components. The proximate-determinants decomposition does
not identify a clear driver of resumed fertility decline. Age at marriage increased steadily but slowly over time, yet contraceptive use among currently married women declined over time. The ideal number of children decreased less than observed fertility.
CONTRIBUTION
This paper discusses one of the first cases of a country in the Middle East and North
Africa coming out of a fertility stall. It is an important contribution to understanding
future demographic trajectories in the region. |
| Web: |
https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol45/19/ |
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