Abstract:
This report is an analysis of recent trends
in abortion and contraception in 12 countries
of central Asia and eastern Europe—Armenia,
Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz
Republic, Moldova, Romania, Russia, Turkey,
Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan—where
abortion had long been a major if not the
principal method of birth control. A cross-
sectional analysis of 18 countries shows a
very high negative correlation between
abortion and the use of modern contraceptive
methods but a moderately high positive
correlation between abortion and the use of
traditional contraceptive methods. In a
series of simulation models, the implications
for further reductions in the prevalence of
abortion are estimated. For example, if the
women currently using modern methods of
contraception were joined by those currently
using traditional methods, abortion rates on
average could be reduced by 23 percent; if
women classified as having unmet need for
family planning were also added to this
group, abortion rates could be reduced by as
much as 55 percent. The report also examines
some of the main covariates of the use of
modern contraception and abortion, as well as
attitudes toward abortion. Multivariate
analyses using a standard set of variables
for all countries highlights the importance
of age, urban residence, and education. The
main conclusions are that there is strong
evidence that modern contraceptive methods
are replacing abortion as the primary means
of family planning. At the same time, there
will be continuing if not increasing pressure
to avoid unintended pregnancies, which often
end in abortion.