Abstract:
This report evaluates the quality of birth
history data from 182 DHS surveys conducted
in 69 countries since the 1990s (DHS Phase II
onward). It focuses on levels and trends in
estimated fertility. Fertility trends are
reconstructed using birth history data from
DHS surveys; the regularity of trends in
fertility and their consistency across
surveys draw a broad picture of the quality
of data from the 69 countries. The results of
the reconstruction indicate that fertility
data are very good in some countries (e.g.,
Armenia, Colombia, Indonesia, Morocco),
acceptable in many countries (e.g., Jordan,
Kenya, Zimbabwe), and poor in other countries
(e.g., Benin, Ethiopia, Niger, Nigeria,
Pakistan). The study identified discrepancies
between the fertility estimates, published in
the survey reports (for the three years
preceding the survey) and the reconstructed
fertility estimates, and explored various
data quality issues that may explain these
discrepancies. Displacement of recent births
in the birth history table of the DHS
questionnaire because of the child health
section is widespread, but it is only
marginally related to discrepancies between
published and reconstructed fertility trends.
Three other factors may account for the
differences: 1) omission of recent births, 2)
the Potter effect, and 3) differences in
sample composition. Overall, the analyses
presented in this study indicate that DHS
fertility estimates are of good or acceptable
quality in the majority of surveys, but that
taking published fertility figures at face
value could be risky in some contexts.
Inferring fertility trends by comparing
recently published fertility data from
successive surveys may lead to erroneous
trend results.