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Small PDF IconCurrent Pregnancy and Fertility (PDF, 600K)
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This study revisits a methodological question pursued in 1980 – whether simple information on current pregnancy status can be used to estimate fertility rates reliably. If so, there would be a substantial gain in simplicity, convenience, and contemporaneity. The conclusion in 1980, based on a study of 15 countries in the World Fertility Survey, was negative. The present analysis using data from 148 Demographic and Health Surveys in 65 countries and adding a longitudinal perspective in 41 of these countries with repeat surveys, reaches a positive conclusion. An adjusted pregnancy rate was developed, based on reported pregnancy durations of 3-8 months, which corresponds very closely with national birthrates 1-2 years later. Additional analyses of subnational or regional data are much less reliable except for the states of India with much larger samples.


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